The Black Sea Knot: Ukraine’s Coastal Regions and Russia’s Geopolitical Logic in the 2022 War

The Black Sea has long occupied an important place in Russia’s maritime and geopolitical strategy, but the Soviet Union’s collapse transformed the conditions of Russian presence and access in this region. This study examines Russia’s subsequent constraints and the geopolitical significance of Ukraine’s coastal regions for Russia in the 2022 war. It asks why these regions have acquired strategic importance beyond security concerns associated with NATO expansion. Using a qualitative approach combining documentary analysis and historical-analytical tracing, the study examines Russia’s changing position in the Black Sea from the Soviet collapse through the 2022 war and its aftermath. It hypothesizes that the concentration of commercial and port facilities, energy and transit infrastructure, naval capabilities, and territorial and logistical connections has made Ukraine’s coastal regions a strategic focal point in Russia’s Black Sea calculations. The findings indicate that changes in control over these regions can ease some constraints on Russia’s maritime access and territorial connectivity. However, the experience of Crimea after 2014 and the war since 2022 shows that territorial control alone is insufficient to overcome these constraints and may create new maritime and logistical vulnerabilities. Maritime geopolitical considerations should therefore be understood as one of the structural contexts of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, alongside security and political factors and competition over the post-Soviet order.