Resilient Statecraft in Iran: Requirements for Territorial Policymaking

Geopolitical shifts, international pressures, and imbalances in energy infrastructure have elevated “resilient statecraft” to a strategic issue for Iran’s national security and territorial stability. This study posits resilient statecraft as the dependent variable, considering the quality of territorial policymaking particularly decentralization in decision-making and the alignment of sectoral policies with spatial considerations as its primary driver. The research aims to identify the imperatives of territorial policymaking for sustainable statecraft and to delineate the plausible futures of Iran.
The study employed a qualitative futures studies approach, utilizing MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. Based on expert consensus, eight key drivers were identified. Structural analysis revealed that the system exists in an unstable state, where resilient statecraft is influenced by these eight key drivers. Scenario analysis indicated that the “Trend-continuation” scenario, with a probability of 44.8%, is the most likely trajectory, followed by the unfavorable (30.2%) and favorable (25%) scenarios, respectively.
The continuation of the current status quo and reliance on centralized crisis management particularly by offloading the burden of energy imbalances and economic shocks onto peripheral regions will exacerbate the center-periphery gap and erode national resilience. Promoting resilient statecraft from passive adaptation to proactive deterrence requires a transition toward territorial policymaking, transforming spatial planning documents into binding criteria for resource allocation, and structural diversification of supply chains and energy infrastructure.