Foresight of Demographic Changes in Iran: Scenarios and Grand Strategy until 2050

This article examines the future of Iran’s demographic changes and plausible scenarios through 2050. Demographic change is recognized as one of the key factors shaping the path of economic, social, and cultural development and, in other words, as a component of national power. In recent years Iran has faced challenges such as declining fertility rates, population aging, internal and external migration, and so on. Therefore, the present study recommends that policymakers implement targeted interventions to strengthen the country’s position before demographic trends turn into a crisis. To assess the direction of demographic change, trends are examined in two categories: direct factors, including fertility, mortality, and migration; and indirect factors, including education, economic status, cultural and social values (the role of women, ideal family size, child sex preference, and technology and social change), urbanization, and government support policies. Using foresight methods and the cross‑impact matrix technique, this study outlines several scenarios in four groups—desirable, preferred, tolerable, and undesirable—for Iran’s population through 2050, each carrying different dimensions and requirements according to macro strategy. The findings indicate that, assuming current trends continue, the preferred scenario is the most likely. Under this scenario, if the Iranian government does not adopt appropriate policies, it will face serious challenges such as a shrinking workforce and increased pressure on resources, which will require investment in education, health, and smart population policies to overcome.