Spatial Analysis of Regional Vulnerability to Threats with a Defense and Security Planning Approach (Case Study: Qom Province)

The present study, entitled Spatial Analysis of Regional Vulnerability with a Defensive–Security Spatial Planning Approach, aims to identify the spatial distribution pattern of vulnerability and to detect non-resilient hotspots within Qom Province.This research is applied in purpose and descriptive–analytical in nature, and is based on library studies, spatial datasets, and quantitative–spatial analyses. Accordingly, a comprehensive set of natural, human-induced, and infrastructural indicators was identified, and the corresponding spatial layers were processed within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. The relative importance of the indicators was determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) implemented through Expert Choice software, while the integration of layers was performed using weighted overlay techniques in ArcGIS Pro. Furthermore, to examine the spatial distribution pattern and the degree of vulnerability concentration, exploratory spatial data analysis methods, including Global Moran’s I spatial autocorrelation index and Kernel Density Estimation, were employed. The results indicate that the spatial pattern of vulnerability in the study area is non-random and exhibits a clustered structure, with high-vulnerability hotspots predominantly concentrated in areas characterized by population density, critical infrastructure concentration, and overlapping sensitive functions. This spatial concentration increases the fragility and risk of the regional spatial system and amplifies the likelihood of cascading and systemic crises. The findings underscore the necessity of shifting from a highly centralized development model toward a more balanced spatial distribution of critical infrastructure, alongside strengthening defensive–security territorial planning principles and passive defense considerations within spatial planning frameworks.