مولفه‌های احتمال وقوع و شدت اثر تهدیدات انسان‌محور و طبیعت‌پایه در زیرساخت آب شهری

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی اصیل

نویسندگان
گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی
چکیده
اهداف: ارزیابی تهدیدات و آسیب‌پذیری زیرساخت‌های حیاتی مانند زیرساخت آب شهری در بسیاری موارد می‌تواند موجب کاهش چشمگیر آسیب‌پذیری‌ها شود یا پیامدهای یک تهدید را به حداقل برساند. هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی مولفه‌های احتمال وقوع و شدت اثر تهدیدات انسان‌محور و طبیعت‌پایه در زیرساخت آب شهری بود.

ابزار و روش‌ها: در این پژوهش تحلیلی- توصیفی، از روش جمع‌آوری اطلاعات کتابخانه‌ای شامل مطالعه کتب، تحقیقات و مقاله‌های داخلی و خارجی پژوهشگران و همچنین جست‌وجوی اینترنتی استفاده شد. جمع‌آوری داده‌ها با پرسش‌نامه، تحلیل آنها با مدل هازوپ، سپس آزمون فریدمن و نرم‌افزار 21 SPSS صورت پذیرفت.

یافته‌ها: طبق نظر کارشناسان به‌ترتیب بیشترین امتیاز مربوط به اقدامات تروریسم و فرونشست بود و در نهایت خطای انسانی قرار داشت. با مدل هازوپ بحرانی‌ترین نوع تهدید آلودگی‌های شیمیایی، حمله نظامی و خشک‌سالی شناخته شد. تهدید نوع دوم، حملات موشکی، زلزله و تروریسم بود. خطای انسانی هم به‌ترتیب در ردیف بعدی تهدیدات بحران‌ساز قرار داشت. حمله نظامی و خشک‌سالی به‌عنوان بحران غیرقابل قبول شناخته شدند و احتمال وقوع سیل، حمله نظامی (زمینی) و خطای انسانی در رتبه یک تا سه قرار گرفتند. شدت اثر (زیان وارده) حمله نظامی، زلزله و آلودگی شیمیایی به‌ترتیب در اولویت اول تا سوم بودند.

نتیجه‌گیری: بحرانی‌ترین نوع تهدیدها آلودگی‌های شیمیایی در زیرساخت آب شهری، حمله نظامی و خشک‌سالی هستند و به‌عنوان بحران غیرقابل قبول شناخته می‌شوند. احتمال وقوع سیل، حمله نظامی (زمینی) و خطای انسانی در رتبه یک تا سه قرار دارد و شدت اثر (زیان وارده) حمله نظامی (زمینی)، زلزله و آلودگی شیمیایی به‌ترتیب در اولویت اول تا سوم هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


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