دانشگاه تربیت مدرس آمایش سیاسی فضا 2645-5145 2 1 2019 12 22 Explaining the security implications of the annual impact of drought on migration Sampling of borders of Sistan and Baluchestan province تبیین بازتاب‌های امنیتی تأثیر خشک‌سالی بر مهاجرت نمونه پژوهی مرزهای استان سیستان و بلوچستان 1 9 20924 FA مسلم نامدارزاده جغرافیا مراد کاویانی راد دانشگاه خوارزمی Journal Article 1970 01 01 The pattern in the last few decades, especially in countries and regions located in the desert of the earth are considered, as a reflection of climate change. A situation that threatens security, stability and development in many areas due to reduced rainfall and water scarcity. Iran has also been strongly influenced by these events and changes in its attitude towards its geographical position during the last decade and half. Southeastern Iran with center (Sistan and Baluchestan Province) which has been a region with low rainfall, daring several periods of time due to climate to the point that it has become one of the migrating provinces of the country. An event that has itself given rise to emerging security issues and challenges, especially in border areas<br> The present article is based on the hypothesis that the decrease in rainfall and threat of water resources has led to the emigration of the province. The methodology of the present study is descriptive-analytical and the required data and information are collected through the meteorological organization and the national statistics center and then using standard rainfall (SPI) and normal rainfall (PNPI) percentage investigate and analyze the spatial distribution of drought (period, 1996-2011) and its impact on the migration of residents of the strategic area. The results show that the occurrence of severe or very severe droughts in a region has negative reflections on the livelihood of residents in the region, which with the attitude of the people of the province to dependence on limited water resources and traditional agriculture and the lack of land management policies and hydro-political relations between Iran and Afghanistan have led to an increase in the crisis in the east of the country, and the people of this province have inevitably migrated to neighboring provinces and other parts of the country to provide better living conditions. <span dir="RTL">رخداد خشک‌سالی‌های پیاپی و تغییر الگوی بارش در چند دهه گذشته به‌ویژه در کشورها و مناطق واقع بر نوار بیابانی کره زمین از بازتاب‌ها و نمودهای تغییر اقلیم به شمار می‌روند. وضعیتی که به‌واسطه کاهش بارش و کم‌آبی؛امنیت، ثبات و توسعه در بسیاری از مناطق را تهدید می‌کند. کشور ما نیز با نگرش به موقعیت جغرافیایی‌اش طی یک و نیم دهه اخیر به شدت متأثر از این رویدادها و دگرگونی‌ها بوده است. جنوب شرق ایران با مرکزیت</span><span dir="RTL">(استان سیستان و بلوچستان)</span><span dir="RTL">که منطقه‌ای کم‌بارش است </span><span dir="RTL">طی این بازه زمانی به‌واسطه­ دگرگونی‌های اقلیمی و خشک‌سالی‌های پیاپی از این پدیده تاثیر پذیرفته تا جاییکه به یکی استان‌های مهاجرفرست کشور مبدل شده است. رخدادی که خود زمینه مسائل و چالش امنیتی نوپدید به ویژه در نواحی مرزی شده است.</span> https://psp.modares.ac.ir/article_20924_1f6922d7e707cc6877ea974d7f920589.pdf